There is a revolution going on in
publishing, where, for the first time in history, writers can choose
how to control their career. Some believe there are only two choices-
the traditional model of submitting to big New York publishers- that
was the only real way until about 4 years ago, or self-publishing. So
some folks pick a side and fight, viewing it as an ideological
struggle, or even a religious war, Tradpubs vs. Selfpubs. The battles
are waged on internet sites and in the media.
Each side claims dominance in the
publishing field, saying they are the better path for a writer. Each
points to numbers supporting their opinion, and bitterly attacks any
who even hint that they might be wrong.
The well-reasoned voices say that there
is no war, only personal choice, and that a writer should
self-educate. But whatever they say gets twisted and savaged by one
side or the other. For the record, I believe in choice, even when the
data and real-life experience shows that one path is truly better for
a greater number of writers than the other.
Note that outstanding success with any
path of writing and publishing is a matter of luck. Hard work and
persistence will improve your chances, but there are no guarantees of
success. The trouble is, when a person has succeeded in publishing,
they want to attribute the success to their choices, hard work, and
persistence. So they naturally tell others "do it my way to
succeed!" Any success stories from the other perspective are
dismissed as "outliers," statistical anomalies that do not
correlate to any other person's chances. They are somewhat correct,
but it's not a full picture. Good data is required, but sadly
lacking.
In recent events of note, important
figures in the Tradpub world have gone public with views on this
issue, how they are the True Path of Quality and Success. More often
than not, they have come across as uninformed, arrogant,
one-percenters who view all self-publishers as unwashed masses who
produce nothing but Crap that Will Never Sell, hinting that most
Selfpubs deserve a miserable fate of failure and justified poverty.
It's really laughable, except when they reveal their true face and
insult Selfpubs and others- one noted power-agent referred to writers
as cattle. Yup, he did, and most in his world seem to share his
views. In all their arguments of what is best, the writer and reader
are supposed to be at the bottom of the pyramid, with them on top,
culling the herd for the prize cattle to make themselves rich.
Ouch. As you can guess, this showing of
true beliefs didn't sit well, even with people not in the fight. So
the response got pretty heated, as most people don't like being
insulted, even (especially) writers.
:-)
This resulted in a series of public
takedowns, where the spouters got shredded, sometimes refuted line by
line, for their words and views. Their response was mostly shock. For
one, they don't seem to understand this whole Internet thingie. And
they shook their heads and said how sad it is that the Selfpubs are
so angry, when Tradpubs were always so reasonable. Sigh. For the
record, writers do not wish to be taken advantage of for someone
else's profit, do not wish to be lied to and manipulated, or cheated,
or even insulted. A few Tradpub bigwigs shot off a series of steaming
piles of pony poop, and got called on it. They weren't happy, and
mostly scuttled back to their castles to calm themselves by counting
their profits earned from writers. The peasants were revolting!
Forgive the snark, but you really have to read for yourself how they
responded when their idiotic posts were attacked. They dug themselves
in deeper and pulled the dirt in after. It's as if they hate and despise the writers who make them rich. Odd.
So Tradpub got a boost from a "survey"
that showed Tradpub writers overall do better financially than
Selfpub writers. (See the Digital Book World postings) HAH! Take
that, Selfpubs, we win! And the survey creators wanted almost $300 a
pop for this golden data. Except that it was another
less-than-useless pile of pony poop, comparing apples to office
furniture. Their survey apparently included a large amount "data"
from people that hadn't even published a book yet! Just focus
on that, and you get the picture. Of course they hadn't made money
yet! It also compared Tradpub winners to ALL Selfpubs. Dumbest thing
ever, but Tradpub apologists used this as evidence to support their
views, once again looking really clueless. More snickers and heated
response from the other side. Much Sturm und Drang.
The real bombshell hit last week. Hugh
Howey, successful author, spent his time, energy, and money to pair
with a data-cruncher, and they scraped some Amazon numbers
and published them (for free), along with a list of caveats. The numbers
indicated that a larger number of self-published works were doing way
better than the Traditional Publishing Industry wants to believe,
pointing toward the concept that a new writer might be better off
Selfpubbing. Hugh was honest and said that these numbers are just a
start, pointed toward the raw data, and said to pull it part and
discuss.
Well, you can guess what happened. The
world had turned upside down, and the pub posting world went
completely batshit. Tradpub defenders turned on the Giant Crap
Machines and tried to bury the report in another mountain of pony
poop, lies, and distortions. But a lot of them don't seem to have
read the whole report, or be able to understand simple math, or maybe
just don't want to believe it. Understandable, because it shows
better numbers than Tradpub has ever produced (why's that?), and only
shows a portion of the big picture. But what it does show is that
Tradpub is in Very Big Trouble- something a lot of folks have been
saying for the last few years. Tradpub wants to protect the vanished
world, to do business as they've always done it, and refuses to
accept the fact of the Revolution. Their hysteria was evident.
Sadly, even reasoned voices who took
their side to crap on the report got severely bloodied. Mike Shatzkin
is a Tradpub industry consultant, and he's often got a keen,
perceptive view of what's happening. On this issue, he publicly shot
himself in the foot, reloaded, shot the other foot, and kept
alternating. It wasn't pretty when Joe Konrath
blew him out of the water.
And one of my writing heroes, Chuck
Wendig, waded into the fray with his Mega Balls of Steel. He does
nothing but help other writers, and is a source of wisdom,
motivation, and good feelings for writers. Even his rhino-hide got
mauled, and he ran from the fight after firing one more cannon blast
into the discussion. Hope it's okay to continue to worship your
heroes, when they're dead wrong on an issue.
There were Trolls on both sides of the
holy war. But we should all get along- we're writers!
Writer Michael Bunker
had a post which
puts brilliant perspective on what the numbers indicate. Forgive the
paraphrasing, but here's a thought experiment, with my additions. These numbers are probably an indication of how things would go, given the last 4 years, except that a huge number of folks on the Tradpub path would abandon it and finally find another path after years of rejection, But we won't count those here.
Take 2000 genre writers with a novel or
two done and ready.
1000 begin the the querying process to
Tradpub.
1000 begin the self-publishing process.
*Let's assume that Barnes and
Noble and Amazon (or someone like them) remain with their current
market share and writer-profitability.
One year later- 0% of the Tradpub group
has a book published. As a group, a thousand of them have been
rejected in toto, some several times. Ah, but think of that golden
future!
The self-pub group has a 100%
publication rate. Most, if not all, have sold copies. They can all
have print versions of their work in hand. Many have published more
books already. Of course, this is not "success" by Tradpub
standards, because it has earned Tradpub not a penny, and is only
further competition for their offerings.
Year 2- for the Tradpub group,
outstanding success! 10 people have received acceptance offers (yeah,
this is a fantasy). 3 of those actually had the business sense to
have their contracts vetted by an outside IP attorney, and realized
they'd be better off not signing. For the other 7, the dream is
happening- they've been accepted, they're on their way.
Still not a single book of the 1000
writers is up for sale yet, but just you wait!
"Success" rate of 1%, meaning
"they were considered for the Golden Fold."
Meanwhile, the Selfpub group has over
3000 books up for sale. 3000 vs zero for the other team. As per the fears of the wannabe gatekeepers,
many of these books are crap. Say 90%, following Sturgeon's Law,
meaning "only" 300 or so okay ones or better are out. Oddly, though, even
some of the crap ones are selling. Most writers have made some
profit.
Year 3, Tradpub. Outstanding! 5, count
them, 5 writers now have a single book out!
PW, Kirkus reviews for one of them, for
another, a nomination for an award! One signed a 3-book deal! (More
best-case fantasy) And those still submitting are still smilingly
determined to join their golden brothers and sisters in the magical
land.
And their advances- $500 for one, $1500
for another, $3000-5000 for two more, and a whopping $10,000 to the
lucky 3-book winner! Now that's real money! Even when divided by 3
years, right?
Year 3, Selfpub. Over 5000 books
published. 500 writers have made over $1000.
5 have made over $10,000.
Ouch. It just gets worse...
By Year 10, there is one Tradpub author
who makes a living writing books. One.
5 others have made 5-figure deals.
There have been 100 books published, 20 are ok or better (since
Tradpub really knows quality).
900 of those who started are no longer
trying to create new stories for publication.
Success rate: Less than 1%.
Year 10, Selfpub. Over 15,000 books
published, over 1500 of those are good or better, since so many
writers continue to practice their craft and get paid for it.
500 writers still produce stories for
publication, and over half of those are making 5 figures or better
per year. Because they kept publishing, got better, got their name
out year after year, there are that many writers doing well.
Like I said, just a thought experiment.
Fiddle the numbers how you wish, but Tradpub is a lottery that may
never pay off a penny, let alone a living wage, and the time scale is
atrocious. You may never get your book in front of a reader. But you
have a 1-in-many-million shot to win an award, and you may get a Pat on
the Head from the Anointed Ones.
Selfpub gives you success the day you
hold your novel, or the day of your first sale.
If you took any professional care in
the content, cover, price, and promotion, you will make some money
from it and the others to follow. You have won. You will write more,
and one day have a real shot at bigger things, if readers like you.
By all means, investigate for yourself
and see what you think. Choose your own path.
