It's a Wonderful Life- in Publishing

Saw an online discussion recently that made me think of a comparison, of how publishing is a bit like the movie It's A Wonderful Life.

Say what? Well, let's take a look. The Big Five traditional publishing companies often act like a group of Mr. Potters, the richest, greediest, and meanest men in town. Note that this whole comparison thing is a generalization, and not all of the people and groups are exactly representative, but as a whole, group efforts certainly do invite the comparison.

The Big Five sit on an excess of wealth, while many authors are scrabbling for enough money to pay a few bills. The Big Five engage in "sharp practice," refuse to pay all but a few authors a fair wage, and have an arrogance and a sneering contempt for the riff-raff and "garlic eaters" (authors and readers). For a prime example, look at Don Maass' public remarks about publishers "culling the prize cattle from the herd" (http://writerunboxed.com/2014/02/05/the-new-class-system/). There are many other utterances from people in the publishing industry expressing similar derision and scorn for writers, who are the very people that supply them with a comfortable living.

For a long time, crawling to the Potters was the only practical way to get published and read. Then along comes George Bailey, in the form of Jeff Bezos. He creates Amazon, which serves as the Bailey Building and Loan. It allowed authors to get published, distributed, and read, at such low cost all can afford it. And the world changed. Like owning your own home in Bailey Park, you can now publish your own book and forego being subservient to the Potters and whatever scraps they decide to toss your way. The Potters of the industry want the suckers to continue paying them rent forever, but many of the riff-raff authors have wised up, and are flocking to the Bailey Building and Loan, to strike out on their own. Maybe they won't have the biggest mansion in town, but they'll have something good- which most didn't have a chance at before.

And it drives the Potters absolutely insane. The Big Five and their cohorts publish hundreds of screechy, non-factual articles trashing Amazon for one thing or another, to the point where people amusedly call it "Amazon Derangement Syndrome," or ADS for short. There's one particular lapdog of the Potters at the New York Times who suffers from ADS in the extreme, and who writes a non-stop series of shrill screeds against Amazon, enough so that his name on a piece is enough to induce chuckles in those who follow industry news, because they know all the false arguments that will follow. No fact-checking or true journalism required- apparently, hating the most successful retailer and writing hit pieces on them is enough to get one a nice gig at the NYT.

If you ask the Potters why authors cannot get paid a little more equitably, say like 50% on ebook revenue instead of the measly 25% they now receive, you get a song-and-dance about how they're suffering. Oh, the poor Potters with their plush Manhattan offices, expense accounts, bonuses, and six-figure salaries are enduring such misery because they're dedicated to Art. Meanwhile, the Bailey Building and Loan gives authors 70%, and still makes money. You'd think there's a lesson there, but it's one the Potters don't want to learn, even though they're losing customers in droves.

I had an online discussion with one of the Potters, and he insisted they couldn't pay authors more, because everyone else in the publishing industry had to get paid, and did I want all those other people to go without? I told him that authors were not responsible for the salary of everyone else but themselves, and he might not want to keep saying that the only people that shouldn't get fairly paid are the content providers, without who, no one else in that field would be getting paid anything. It's a weird, inverted-pyramid style of thinking.

The Potters got rich because they had no competition for many years but each other. With the rise of ebooks and Amazon and other media, they now have a rapidly-shrinking market share, and it scares the daylights out of them. Then successful independent author (Bailey customer) Hugh Howey comes along, and with the help of a data guru, puts out quarterly reports that show most people would be better off with the Bailey Building and Loan route than with the Potters. And the Potters go bananas, calling the reports a pack of filthy lies, even though the reports painstakingly show how the data is gathered. To date, no one has offered better data- the Potters simply insist it cannot be true, because they don't want it to be.

The Potters say that authors shouldn't support the Bailey Building and Loan, because someday the BB&L will turn on its loyal customers, and give them less money. Well, that may be (or more likely not), but for now, all those authors are getting their books published and getting paid something for them. Some are even doing rather well.

The Potters are greedy, and so they charge too much for their ebooks in many cases, driving people to the Baileys in greater numbers. The Potter authors themselves know they'd sell more if the prices were lower, but the Potters don't care about stuff like that.

And with the Bailey Building and Loan, an author doesn't need a Potter contract, a devilish device designed to put most authors at a major disadvantage in publishing. And an author can get the cover they want, because many Potter authors get stuck with crappy stock art, or a cover that has nothing to do with the contents of the book.

Some people want to deal with the Potters, thinking it makes them better. Less than five years ago, I got an account with the Bailey Building and Loan, and have been doing great since. I'm happy about not having to deal with any Potters. I just don't care for their business methods, and their snotty attitude toward writers. I'm publishing and selling quality books in all formats and platforms, and gaining new fans all the time.

So just like the movie, It's a Wonderful Life- in Publishing. Thanks, George. Maybe, like Clarence, you'll get your wings.

Amazon vs. Big Pub vs.Writers- Who's David, Who's Goliath?

Malcolm Gladwell’s book, David and Goliath, made me think about the whole Amazon/Hachette spat as a parable. Hugh Howey started talking about David and Goliath again.

Because the big media companies continue to distribute falsehoods attacking Amazon, I've looked at this issue before:
Is Amazon Evil, With a Plan to Destroy the Universe?

Amazon and Hachette- Godzilla vs. Mothra

Up until recently, the Big 5’s control of commercial book distribution was near-monopolistic. So say they represent 5 Goliaths with a huge support system, the Philistine Army. They controlled what was sold, how it was sold, and prices. They stomped around and said that nothing was of value unless it went through them, and they took their massive cut for middle-manning. They justified this, because supplying such a huge empire and army was expensive.

Thousands of lyrical shepherds wished to sell their stories and songs, but few could effectively challenge so powerful an army. Some select and lucky shepherds who went begging to the Philistines got paid off with the chance to get their stories in places where others could discover them, so that they might be sold.

One day a caravan named for a river arrived and changed everything. They travelled to all ends of the earth, selling stories for any shepherd, for much more than the Philistines paid. No more begging was involved, and they even handed each shepherd a sling. And many shepherds sold stories which the people craved.

Since the shepherds didn’t have grand armies to support, they could live by selling fewer stories, so many didn’t bother getting permission from the Philistines, who raged at losing control and their cut of profits. The Philistines demanded battle, and lumbered to the field with heavy armor and weapons.

What happened was extraordinary. Whizzing stones peppered the Goliaths, as an army of speedy, lightly-clad Davids fired back in response. No slow Goliath could catch any of the nimble shepherds, they could only rail against the unfairness of it all. “That’s not how battles are fought!”

The shepherds don’t need the Philistines around anymore, they just want to sell stories however they can. But the dismayed Philistines need to support their huge army, and keep demanding battle, saying the caravan that sells is evil, and will someday hurt the shepherds.

The shepherds shrug and figure they’ll find another caravan if that happens. In the meantime, they’re doing rather well without any Philistine involvement.

Is Amazon Evil, With a Plan to Destroy the Universe?

Elizabeth K. Burton commented on a previous post.
http://daletphillips.blogspot.com/2014/05/amazon-and-hachette-godzilla-vs-mothra.html
Thank you for weighing in- good food for thought, because authors really need to think this through.
 
It's truly a battle of mega-monsters, who will no doubt trample a lot of us little folk underfoot, whoever wins. And it may well result in the outcome Elizabeth brings up.
There's some pretty big stakes for us all here- future selling capability. There's a few more places to check out for commentary, the wonderful Hugh Howey and the irascible Chuck Wendig. Different slants here, but good to get a broad picture, and fair input from pretty savvy people with skin in the game.
http://www.hughhowey.com/
http://terribleminds.com/ramble/2014/06/03/amazon-hachette-and-giant-stompy-corporations/

My words in the last post were inadequate to the whole picture. And Elizabeth caught me mixing my metaphors, when I should have explained in more detail. Let's explore some more.

The previous title reflects the real battle-- between two giant corporations, rather than big old bully Amazon is picking on a poor little Mom-and-Pop shop, as has been the slant in a number of pieces by media apologists for Hachette's side. The big publishing house and their parent corporation have an immense amount of resources at their call, and have been pushing for hearts and minds in the media.

The weakling vs the sumo image comes in when we see Hachette try to push Amazon into doing things the Hachette way, instead of how Amazon wants to do it.

Big Publishing has had at least five years to adjust to the new world, but it seems all they can do is keep blaming Amazon for unfairly taking away their divine right of massive profits. They keep making it too damn easy for Amazon to beat them senseless, and hand Bezos ever-bigger clubs to do it with.

Amazon is just way better at this game, much more versatile, and craftier, thinking long-game, while the Big Pub moves seem clumsy, short-sighted, and ill-intentioned. See how Amazon completely and easily disemboweled the argument about hurting individual writers with their offer of loss compensation to be matched by Hachette.  Hachette grumpily refused (at least seemed to), in typical, ham-handed fashion. Low-hanging fruit with a huge PR win, and all Big Pub does is reload and shoot their other foot.

First, let's accept one thing- any extra money Hachette gets from any deal is not likely to go into author pockets, but rather to Hachette profits. Ditto for higher book prices. Many commentators are rightly pointing out that Hachette, as part of the Big Publishing conglomerates, is currently taking unfair advantage of authors. Heck, we have the public confession by several of their writers that working for that cartel is like grubbing for change, and if the current author Hachette book doesn’t sell properly, they’re screwed, no matter how successful they’ve been in the past.
Ouch. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a business partner…

Okay, it’s not a holy war, it’s not the Fellowship against Mordor, it’s big monsters contending for how much pie they’ll eat in the future. But one group is doing bad stuff RIGHT NOW, and the other side is… currently treating us pretty decently…

Amazon has made it possible for hundreds, or thousands of authors to get paid (at much higher wages) for their work on their terms. We are approaching a time (if we haven’t made it there already) when more authors can make a living outside of Big Pub than inside.

And that, my friends, is what has Big Pub scared shirtless. They have to fight this idea tooth and nail. Because when the smart authors figure out they can make more money over the long run and be treated better by NOT rushing to Big Pub, Big Pub not only loses profits, but is in grave danger. That’s why they froth over the Author Earnings reports from Hugh Howey and Data Guy, who are extrapolating the data, and showing that now there are two very viable options, and one has much higher odds of success.
http://authorearnings.com/updates/

But, as many have counseled- diversify! Don’t put all your author eggs into any one basket, Big Pub or Amazon. Use multiple outlets to distribute and sell books. Mark Coker of Smashwords must be loving this dust-up, because he’s going to be a clear winner, as many authors realize he offers a terrific place to sell ebooks.

As for Barnes and Noble, why is it so hard for them to get decent customer service and a website that doesn’t suck? With millions at stake, they look like they just don’t care. Maybe they’ve just given up, which would be a shame. It’s good to have market alternatives.

So suppose Amazon gains even bigger control of the market, and pulls off their mask to reveal the Face of Evil underneath. Suppose they give a giant F-U to the writing and reading world. Could they get away with reducing author ebook share to 50-50, or even less, if they were the only game in town? Maybe. Note that it would still be more than Big Pub! But you’d hear thundering hooves as many left the fold. They reduced the author share on ACX by a few percent, and the resulting firestorm would have made you think they ate babies. Many would continue with them, but alternatives would spring up fast, and people would split as soon as it was viable.
Not saying it may not happen, just not happening today.

Neither company is your friend. Neither is a religion. As a writer today, you view distributors and publishers as business partners who are temporary, as long as they benefit you. Last night, someone at the writing group was asking who to publish with. We told them “depends on the contract terms.” Right now, Amazon is treating authors as more of a partner, while Hachette is treating authors as serfs.

You have a choice on who to deal with. Make yours wisely, and plan for today and the future.

The Big Publishing Kerfluffle

There is a revolution going on in publishing, where, for the first time in history, writers can choose how to control their career. Some believe there are only two choices- the traditional model of submitting to big New York publishers- that was the only real way until about 4 years ago, or self-publishing. So some folks pick a side and fight, viewing it as an ideological struggle, or even a religious war, Tradpubs vs. Selfpubs. The battles are waged on internet sites and in the media.

Each side claims dominance in the publishing field, saying they are the better path for a writer. Each points to numbers supporting their opinion, and bitterly attacks any who even hint that they might be wrong.

The well-reasoned voices say that there is no war, only personal choice, and that a writer should self-educate. But whatever they say gets twisted and savaged by one side or the other. For the record, I believe in choice, even when the data and real-life experience shows that one path is truly better for a greater number of writers than the other.

Note that outstanding success with any path of writing and publishing is a matter of luck. Hard work and persistence will improve your chances, but there are no guarantees of success. The trouble is, when a person has succeeded in publishing, they want to attribute the success to their choices, hard work, and persistence. So they naturally tell others "do it my way to succeed!" Any success stories from the other perspective are dismissed as "outliers," statistical anomalies that do not correlate to any other person's chances. They are somewhat correct, but it's not a full picture. Good data is required, but sadly lacking.

In recent events of note, important figures in the Tradpub world have gone public with views on this issue, how they are the True Path of Quality and Success. More often than not, they have come across as uninformed, arrogant, one-percenters who view all self-publishers as unwashed masses who produce nothing but Crap that Will Never Sell, hinting that most Selfpubs deserve a miserable fate of failure and justified poverty. It's really laughable, except when they reveal their true face and insult Selfpubs and others- one noted power-agent referred to writers as cattle. Yup, he did, and most in his world seem to share his views. In all their arguments of what is best, the writer and reader are supposed to be at the bottom of the pyramid, with them on top, culling the herd for the prize cattle to make themselves rich.

Ouch. As you can guess, this showing of true beliefs didn't sit well, even with people not in the fight. So the response got pretty heated, as most people don't like being insulted, even (especially) writers.

:-)

This resulted in a series of public takedowns, where the spouters got shredded, sometimes refuted line by line, for their words and views. Their response was mostly shock. For one, they don't seem to understand this whole Internet thingie. And they shook their heads and said how sad it is that the Selfpubs are so angry, when Tradpubs were always so reasonable. Sigh. For the record, writers do not wish to be taken advantage of for someone else's profit, do not wish to be lied to and manipulated, or cheated, or even insulted. A few Tradpub bigwigs shot off a series of steaming piles of pony poop, and got called on it. They weren't happy, and mostly scuttled back to their castles to calm themselves by counting their profits earned from writers. The peasants were revolting! Forgive the snark, but you really have to read for yourself how they responded when their idiotic posts were attacked. They dug themselves in deeper and pulled the dirt in after. It's as if they hate and despise the writers who make them rich. Odd.

So Tradpub got a boost from a "survey" that showed Tradpub writers overall do better financially than Selfpub writers. (See the Digital Book World postings) HAH! Take that, Selfpubs, we win! And the survey creators wanted almost $300 a pop for this golden data. Except that it was another less-than-useless pile of pony poop, comparing apples to office furniture. Their survey apparently included a large amount "data" from people that hadn't even published a book yet! Just focus on that, and you get the picture. Of course they hadn't made money yet! It also compared Tradpub winners to ALL Selfpubs. Dumbest thing ever, but Tradpub apologists used this as evidence to support their views, once again looking really clueless. More snickers and heated response from the other side. Much Sturm und Drang.

The real bombshell hit last week. Hugh Howey, successful author, spent his time, energy, and money to pair with a data-cruncher, and they scraped some Amazon numbers and published them (for free), along with a list of caveats. The numbers indicated that a larger number of self-published works were doing way better than the Traditional Publishing Industry wants to believe, pointing toward the concept that a new writer might be better off Selfpubbing. Hugh was honest and said that these numbers are just a start, pointed toward the raw data, and said to pull it part and discuss.

Well, you can guess what happened. The world had turned upside down, and the pub posting world went completely batshit. Tradpub defenders turned on the Giant Crap Machines and tried to bury the report in another mountain of pony poop, lies, and distortions. But a lot of them don't seem to have read the whole report, or be able to understand simple math, or maybe just don't want to believe it. Understandable, because it shows better numbers than Tradpub has ever produced (why's that?), and only shows a portion of the big picture. But what it does show is that Tradpub is in Very Big Trouble- something a lot of folks have been saying for the last few years. Tradpub wants to protect the vanished world, to do business as they've always done it, and refuses to accept the fact of the Revolution. Their hysteria was evident.

Sadly, even reasoned voices who took their side to crap on the report got severely bloodied. Mike Shatzkin is a Tradpub industry consultant, and he's often got a keen, perceptive view of what's happening. On this issue, he publicly shot himself in the foot, reloaded, shot the other foot, and kept alternating. It wasn't pretty when Joe Konrath blew him out of the water.

And one of my writing heroes, Chuck Wendig, waded into the fray with his Mega Balls of Steel. He does nothing but help other writers, and is a source of wisdom, motivation, and good feelings for writers. Even his rhino-hide got mauled, and he ran from the fight after firing one more cannon blast into the discussion. Hope it's okay to continue to worship your heroes, when they're dead wrong on an issue.

There were Trolls on both sides of the holy war. But we should all get along- we're writers!

Writer Michael Bunker had a post which puts brilliant perspective on what the numbers indicate. Forgive the paraphrasing, but here's a thought experiment, with my additions. These numbers are probably an indication of how things would go, given the last 4 years, except that a huge number of folks on the Tradpub path would abandon it and finally find another path after years of rejection, But we won't count those here.

Take 2000 genre writers with a novel or two done and ready.

1000 begin the the querying process to Tradpub.

1000 begin the self-publishing process.

*Let's assume that Barnes and Noble and Amazon (or someone like them) remain with their current market share and writer-profitability.

One year later- 0% of the Tradpub group has a book published. As a group, a thousand of them have been rejected in toto, some several times. Ah, but think of that golden future!

The self-pub group has a 100% publication rate. Most, if not all, have sold copies. They can all have print versions of their work in hand. Many have published more books already. Of course, this is not "success" by Tradpub standards, because it has earned Tradpub not a penny, and is only further competition for their offerings.

Year 2- for the Tradpub group, outstanding success! 10 people have received acceptance offers (yeah, this is a fantasy). 3 of those actually had the business sense to have their contracts vetted by an outside IP attorney, and realized they'd be better off not signing. For the other 7, the dream is happening- they've been accepted, they're on their way.

Still not a single book of the 1000 writers is up for sale yet, but just you wait!
"Success" rate of 1%, meaning "they were considered for the Golden Fold."

Meanwhile, the Selfpub group has over 3000 books up for sale. 3000 vs zero for the other team. As per the fears of the wannabe gatekeepers, many of these books are crap. Say 90%, following Sturgeon's Law, meaning "only" 300 or so okay ones or better are out. Oddly, though, even some of the crap ones are selling. Most writers have made some profit.

Year 3, Tradpub. Outstanding! 5, count them, 5 writers now have a single book out!

PW, Kirkus reviews for one of them, for another, a nomination for an award! One signed a 3-book deal! (More best-case fantasy) And those still submitting are still smilingly determined to join their golden brothers and sisters in the magical land.
And their advances- $500 for one, $1500 for another, $3000-5000 for two more, and a whopping $10,000 to the lucky 3-book winner! Now that's real money! Even when divided by 3 years, right?

Year 3, Selfpub. Over 5000 books published. 500 writers have made over $1000.

5 have made over $10,000.
Ouch. It just gets worse...

By Year 10, there is one Tradpub author who makes a living writing books. One.

5 others have made 5-figure deals. There have been 100 books published, 20 are ok or better (since Tradpub really knows quality).
900 of those who started are no longer trying to create new stories for publication.
Success rate: Less than 1%.

Year 10, Selfpub. Over 15,000 books published, over 1500 of those are good or better, since so many writers continue to practice their craft and get paid for it.

500 writers still produce stories for publication, and over half of those are making 5 figures or better per year. Because they kept publishing, got better, got their name out year after year, there are that many writers doing well.

Like I said, just a thought experiment. Fiddle the numbers how you wish, but Tradpub is a lottery that may never pay off a penny, let alone a living wage, and the time scale is atrocious. You may never get your book in front of a reader. But you have a 1-in-many-million shot to win an award, and you may get a Pat on the Head from the Anointed Ones.

Selfpub gives you success the day you hold your novel, or the day of your first sale.

If you took any professional care in the content, cover, price, and promotion, you will make some money from it and the others to follow. You have won. You will write more, and one day have a real shot at bigger things, if readers like you.

By all means, investigate for yourself and see what you think. Choose your own path.